tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post9093694113694170452..comments2023-09-26T09:28:50.128-04:00Comments on IMINT & Analysis: Russia, Georgia, & DisinformationSean O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-78421202886254103132010-01-18T18:48:23.492-05:002010-01-18T18:48:23.492-05:00Disappointed that the South Ossetians get the blam...Disappointed that the South Ossetians get the blame Sean.<br />Takes two to tango and I would suggest that it is the Georgians that clearly had more to gain from the confrontation than South Ossetia did.<br />Also blaming the Russians for not expecting Georgia to attack South Ossetia again (there is a reason there were peace keepers there in the first place you know) is like blaming the US for not expecting the 11/9 attack. <br />The world trade centre had been bombed before after all. How could they not see that coming?<br />Did the Russians really expect Saakashvili to be that dumb?<br />Saddam invaded Kuwaite because he thought he had US support.<br />Saakashvili no doubt believed he could do no wrong.<br />Rather than blame Russia or South Ossetia or even Georgia I think it is pretty clear Saakashvili deserves all of the blame for what happened, with the west sharing because they seemed to enjoy the little side shows before hand and after the event like night trips with foreign leaders to disputed borders at night.<br />Saakashvili is a clown.<br />BTW the Russian manouvers you mentioned finished well before the start of the conflict.<br />A large portion of the forces the Russians ended up using were volunteers from North Ossetia and other parts of the region (ie Chechens included).<br />The very idea that Russia started anything is clearly shown to be false when you look at how fast the Georgians ran when the Russians actually did start coming.<br />If the Russians had started it, it would have been artillery in Tiblisi rather than the SO capital.<br />Those decrying Russian aggression should think about what would have happened if Serbia had done what Georgia did.<br />A Serbian attack on Kosovo that killed lots of NATO peacekeepers would have ended in regime change in Serbia no less.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-69255334445934024632009-02-03T14:20:00.000-05:002009-02-03T14:20:00.000-05:00Hi again,The nice article about Russian Air Forces...Hi again,<BR/><BR/>The nice article about Russian Air Forces and Georgian Air defence pointed by URL below.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, it is in Russian. Briefly Georgian AD includes: Osa-AKM, Kolchuga, S-125, Buk-1M, Shilka, Python-4 and Grom (aka Igla made in Poland).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-41795688364623724832009-01-09T16:53:00.000-05:002009-01-09T16:53:00.000-05:00Sean,Very good work. As noted by others there are ...Sean,<BR/>Very good work. As noted by others there are some sentences that could be more specific, but no written work is ever truly done. <BR/><BR/>I like especially that you list your sources, and it is easy to follow your line of thought. Maybe a short list of explanations of acronyms might be handy. Mayeb try and have that as a permanent side column, or link to another page, so that your articles remain clear.<BR/><BR/>I would have like to see you tear into more ppl than the unfortunate Mr. Peters - i read his article, and it did seem very shallow on detail- more of an "impression/opinion" piece, with very little factual backup. <BR/><BR/>But i doubt that he, alone in his little world, "propagates most of the myths sent through the rest of the media". He be pretty powerful if he could do that...<BR/><BR/>Id liek to iterate again that I find your style, approach and handling of comments to be clear, mature, very insightful and thought-provoking. This is the kind of writing that makes me go and find out more.<BR/><BR/>Great work, keep it up!<BR/><BR/>COBConorMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01927869659047957392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-22052419902029269312008-12-26T12:49:00.000-05:002008-12-26T12:49:00.000-05:00Hi Sean,Thanks for interesting article. Rissians ...Hi Sean,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for interesting article. Rissians warned Georgia that they will follow peacekeeping agreement if Georgia attacked S.Ossetia and shit happened. In general you are right but some details were not [officially] covered:<BR/>- major part was handled by 58 Army which is equipped with old weapon to operate on North Causasus area.<BR/>- Su-34 were used in Codori Gorge (Abkhazia), very effectively<BR/>- Iskander (SS-26) wasn't used, only Tocka/Tocka-U (SS-21)<BR/>- no Mi-28N nor Ka-50/52 were used.<BR/><BR/>As a result of this invasion and murdering of Russian peacekeepers Russia desided to increase 25% budget for new weapon but still it is very little fraction of the US military budget.<BR/><BR/>If you be able to read Cyrillic scripts you are welcome to that forum<BR/>https://www.avanturist.org/forum/index.php/topic,164.0.html<BR/><BR/>There is some interesting information provided by BlackShark which is a real Colonel from GABTU (kind of General Headquarters tank forces control).<BR/><BR/>Mr. Felgengauer, is not an expert in military, he faulted many times as well as here. He wrote that "Georgian army is the best in CES and will destroy Russians in a week". His background is in biology but he is not very well-known in own area.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-75989488109324929162008-09-01T07:24:00.000-04:002008-09-01T07:24:00.000-04:00Your work and analysis is outstanding!Your lattera...Your work and analysis is outstanding!<BR/>Your latteral thinking superb!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-22955472634934873102008-08-31T02:31:00.000-04:002008-08-31T02:31:00.000-04:00Russia may well be guilty of more than a few thing...Russia may well be guilty of more than a few things in this conflict, such as spreading disinformation about Ukrainian S-200s as I pointed out. The point is that the evidence is not yet there so it is counterproductive to fostering a healthy relationship to simply fabricate evidence as the sources I cited have clearly done. I'm not saying Russia did nothing wrong, I'm saying that the reporting of the conflict has been severely flawed. All the examples I give bear that out.Sean O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-41534623869800206842008-08-31T01:34:00.000-04:002008-08-31T01:34:00.000-04:00Ahhhhaaaa considering the long windedness of the a...Ahhhhaaaa considering the long windedness of the author's comments on Mother Russia and how innocent she is...<BR/><BR/>hmmm often times the simplest answer is often the most correct.<BR/><BR/>Political propaganda is very sophistocated and extended arguments are ment to decieve not enlighten.<BR/><BR/>What does that say about this article? Hogwash. Russia had plans all along to recapture its former glory and string the former soviet republics back togather like some broken necklace.<BR/><BR/>One small step for Ivan, one giant leap for totalitarianism. Democratic republic my butt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-85906349246021434832008-08-27T03:29:00.000-04:002008-08-27T03:29:00.000-04:00Can't you see that this "Sean O'Connor" is another...Can't you see that this "Sean O'Connor" is another Russian spreading the lies all over the net? They all (Russian hackers) are trying to save their informational war spreading lies. As you all can see this guy here was changing others posts to the point he wanted you all to see. But he doesn't know that the only ones who don't know anything are Russian people. The Russian people are completely locked out in the informational vacuum, created by their government. For example 75% of those who have been questioned during the sociologic research in Russia think, that Georgian population is 45-50 million (real figures; 5 million and 2 million among them are abroad the country) and that Georgians are Muslims (Georgia became Christians in the second part of VI century, when Russian didn't even have the parliament and government). Russians will give any excuse, regardless if it's true or not, just to show the world that they are right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-60351255208822126092008-08-24T07:18:00.000-04:002008-08-24T07:18:00.000-04:00Another piece of the puzzle:http://www.rferl.org/c...Another piece of the puzzle:<BR/><BR/>http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_Georgian_Scripted_Affair/1193319.html<BR/><BR/>and some others:<BR/><BR/>http://www.rferl.org/content/Did_Russia_Plan_Its_War_In_Georgia__/1191460.html<BR/><BR/>What is amazing, the Chechen underground had apparently got the info on the decided invasion one month before it started, although the first script was different:<BR/><BR/>http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2008/07/05/9984.shtml<BR/><BR/>The efforts of German diplomats who started shattle negotiations on<BR/>Abkhazia in July had spoiled that plan and caused a switch to S. Ossetia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-11235509922853691142008-08-24T06:53:00.000-04:002008-08-24T06:53:00.000-04:00Sean, I find your work incredible, especially cons...Sean, I find your work incredible, especially considering you do it without access to "secret" government data. With that said, I believe you expose a blind spot in your analysis of this conflict. I actually agree that Ralph Peters got some stuff wrong, even some basic stuff that a number of other folks (who aren't very pro-Russian right now) picked up, so he is not without error, but he did just spend a lot of time in that specific region and knows a lot about the Russian and how they do things and has plenty of contacts to help him shape his opinion. <BR/><BR/>The Georgians screwed up and took the bait IMHO. I don't think they thought we would "save" them, that would of been a miscalculation of biblical proportions, but I think they thought a punitive incursion to end the shelling would be supported internationally and wouldn't generate a far bigger punitive expedition and standoff with a belligerent Russia. <BR/><BR/>Why do I say belligerent? The Russian government has been fomenting violent revolution in three separate provinces of Georgia, not a friendly act. The Vosthok (sp?) unit from Chechnya being brought into the fight; a unit with such a heinous reputation for thuggery and brutality the Russians said they been disbanded for it. The theft and/or destruction of weapons in bases the Russians took control of and unrelated to the stated reasons Russia invaded. Shit, they plain just stole three HMMWV's we had sitting on the docks waiting to come back to us. And let's not forget their threatening language to the rest of their neighbors during this crisis. <BR/><BR/>I tend to shy away from theories unproven by facts but merely suggested at by events, but if someone doesn't believe that this invasion was Russia putting on a show for her neighbors who seek NATO membership and closer ties with western Europe, that person does not understand world politics very well. Russia helped precipitate these events in a number of ways that aren't very subtle, is it too much to imagine that they did so in other ways we don't have immediate omniscient knowledge of? <BR/><BR/>Georgia, as I said, is no saint, but when it comes to who are we going to side with, shouldn't we give the people who aren't currently being repressive, controlling dicks a little more of the benefit of our doubt? If only Russia wasn't so damn paranoid, this whole thing would probably have never happened. It's like they are afraid we want to invade them. Sadly, I feel it is our promotion of freedom that worries Putin the most.:(<BR/><BR/>Keep up the good work.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08545896361273797196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-57860834561668006652008-08-23T21:08:00.000-04:002008-08-23T21:08:00.000-04:00Sean –First, Felgengauer’ sources are high placed ...Sean –<BR/><BR/>First, Felgengauer’ sources are high placed in Russian military, like Gen. Staff and GRU, etc., and he claims that the decision to create the entire conflict and do so just to put down Georgia was made up as early as April. He gives proofs however you interpret them differently. You do not argue with him, you just dismiss him and reiterate your interpretation. <BR/><BR/>Second, multiple incidents between the Ossetians and Georgians in the beginning of August were initiated and escalated by the Ossetians. You treat Ossetians as a separate entity. But this is not so. They do what they are told. On 3 Aug. Russian deputy minister of defence and deputy head of GRU paid a secret visit to S. Ossetia: http://www.apsny.ge/news/1217792861.php (sorry, in Russian). After that, the shooting had escalated greatly. Note that by that moment, the children and other civilians had been already moving out of the city “for summer vacation”.<BR/><BR/>Another matter is who had commanded S. Ossetians into escalation? Either Russian military or Kremlin via the military. It is somewhat exotic to think that some “war party” could do that over the head of Kremlin. Still the Georgians could believe that Kremlin was not going to approve a massive invasion – this is the idea first expressed by a well-informed journalist Yulia Latynina: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2008/08/mil-080808-rferl02.htm <BR/>However, even in this case the Kremlin had chosen to take the leadership rather than oppose to the military that makes the search for who is more responsible almost irrelevant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-29257218878458711272008-08-23T09:37:00.000-04:002008-08-23T09:37:00.000-04:00Great article.Thx at Sean O'Connor for the link.Ex...Great article.<BR/>Thx at Sean O'Connor for the link.<BR/>Exactly what I was looking for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-55183371755428269122008-08-23T01:29:00.000-04:002008-08-23T01:29:00.000-04:00Great post here Sean. Thanks for standing up for a...Great post here Sean. Thanks for standing up for accurate information.<BR/><BR/>And your point that everybody has to share the blame in this is spot on.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08988309842124461535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-34616872967314328722008-08-22T23:09:00.000-04:002008-08-22T23:09:00.000-04:00Felgengauer's article is interesting but changes l...Felgengauer's article is interesting but changes little. Come on people, Russia was going to prepare for potential conflict during the beginning of August, which coincides with the end of Kavkaz-2008 as Felgengauer mentions, as there were multiple incidents between the Ossetians and Georgians and Russian appearances in the UN to get the mess sorted out. But that does not mean that Russia instigated the whole conflict just to invade Georgia. I never said that they weren't likely preparing for a possible conflict, just that there is absolutely no evidence to show that they created the entire conflict in the first place, and did so just to put down Georgia. Preparation? Of course they were preparing. It's the motives that people are getting crossed signals on. And again, this guy is claiming that the lack of rapid advance had to do with lack of ability. Where is the unbiased consideration of the simple fact that maybe they just had to get things organized and weren't actually planning an all-out invasion in the first place?<BR/><BR/>I'm starting to wonder if the people berating my article on the web (and I don't mean the readers and commenters here who have the integrity to actually engage me in a discussion, which I always welcome) have even bothered to read it fully and understand the context, which is that everyone is partly to blame for this, and that there is no reason to paint the Russians as an Evil Empire for doing something that there is absolutely no tangible evidence of them having done, namely setting this all up and instigating the war. Even the US DoD is stating that there was no evidence of any buildup setting up an invasion. But I guess paid bloggers have access to far better intelligence collection methods and technologies. Their overhead imaging satellites must be outstanding, maybe they can hook me up with more imagery of areas outside Kiev and Moscow so I can finish the Russian and Ukrainian Air Defense Analysis pieces.<BR/><BR/>It is totally hilarious that the West is on some high horse over Russia's desire to separate Ossetia from Georgia. Where was the desire to retain the territorial integrity of Serbia when Kosovo wanted to separate?<BR/><BR/>Once again, let's make this clear:<BR/><BR/>-Who was at fault? Everybody.<BR/><BR/>-Was Russia increasing readiness for a potential military action? Yes, otherwise they would have been stupid given the situation the first week of August.<BR/><BR/>-Is there evidence of a mass buildup as a precursor to an outright invasion of Georgia or evidence of Russian planning of the entire sequence of events to allow them to do just that? No.Sean O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-2444102776346656972008-08-22T21:21:00.000-04:002008-08-22T21:21:00.000-04:00On Russian preparation see the article of P. Felge...On Russian preparation see the article of P. Felgengauer, a well-reputed journalist and military expert in the only Russian not-pro-putin newspaper:<BR/>http://en.novayagazeta.ru/data/2008/59/01.html<BR/>His previous articles are also remarkable and show the dynamics of preparation:<BR/>http://en.novayagazeta.ru/data/?auth=97&kw=0&rarch=1&rub=0&sb_all=%3E%3E<BR/><BR/>Can you comment on that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-13374381375914362782008-08-21T18:44:00.000-04:002008-08-21T18:44:00.000-04:00Re: precision weaponsIt has been claimed in severa...Re: precision weapons<BR/><BR/>It has been claimed in several russian military blogs that Russians have used cruise missiles. <BR/><BR/>One source (e.g. http://ashmul.livejournal.com/65820.html), specifically claims they launched several X-555s and X-101s from Tu-160s that were flown in from Engels (121th heavy bomber regiment, 37th army) <BR/>The source is unreliable (being a LiveJournal post and all), but doesn't contradict anything I know.<BR/><BR/>if you read Russian, also check out this:<BR/>http://forum.sevastopol.info/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=98160&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=9450Mr. Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03880707373388171181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-81574209184642624192008-08-20T23:48:00.000-04:002008-08-20T23:48:00.000-04:00Here is better evidence that the invasion was not ...Here is better evidence that the invasion was not pre-planned:<BR/><BR/>http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3a2c8b124e-2278-457d-9f2f-6c2f00d9ac54<BR/><BR/><BR/>"Former Russian Defense Minister Gen. Paul Grachev cast blame on all the Russian intelligence services for lack of warning and commanders of the North Caucasus Military District for not having a detailed contingency plan in case of an attack by Georgia.<BR/><BR/>Gen. Mahmut Gareyev, president of the Academy of Military Sciences, also blamed military intelligence for the classic failure of miscalculating Georgia’s intentions. The resulting confusion in Russia’s command and control was pointed to as the reason that Russia’s air force took so many losses including a number of Su-25 Frogfoot close attack aircraft, possibly an Su-24 and a front-line, high-performance Tu-22M aircraft which may have been either a bombing or reconnaissance variant operated by the Black Sea Fleet."<BR/><BR/>The information in that article is best explained by the supposition that Russia had plans for invasion but no time for commanders to review or act upon them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-82882298995432890962008-08-20T23:27:00.000-04:002008-08-20T23:27:00.000-04:00I am not convinced by the evidence from which you ...I am not convinced by the evidence from which you conclusion that the invasion wasn't preplanned by Russia. <BR/><BR/>A more likely interpretation of the same evidence is that Russia did plan it and considered propaganda and information warfare as part of their planning.<BR/> <BR/>You write:<BR/><BR/>"By 3 August Russia was warning Georgia that the conflict would escalate if it continued further."<BR/><BR/><BR/>"The South Ossetian separatists do appear to have been the primary instigators of the conflict, but this was a full 10 days before any major Russian military involvement in the area."<BR/><BR/>"There were multiple meetings within the framework of the UN and multiple talks regarding a ceasefire well before August 11, and in some cases even before August 8. "<BR/><BR/><BR/>"A US defense official was quoted by AFP on 12 August as stating that there was no evidence to support a buildup of Russian forces prior to the invasion. <BR/>...<BR/>This should not necessarily have been much of a shock, as there were Russian troops in the area prepared to enter South Ossetia."<BR/><BR/><BR/>It was instigated by rebels, close allies of Russia, Russia tries to generate moral authority by using diplomatic means, Russia didn't need to overtly preposition troops on the border because troops were already in the area for war games that had been schedueled in advance.<BR/><BR/>...<BR/><BR/>You might be right that the Russians didn't preplan to invade Georgia, but you didn't prove it with the evidence you cited.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-1787237315351936972008-08-20T03:29:00.000-04:002008-08-20T03:29:00.000-04:00Great article. It's one of the few real critiques...Great article. It's one of the few real critiques I've seen, serious stuff. Your interaction with the comments says a lot for your commitment to accuracy. I'll be back;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-41938751392587261642008-08-19T12:06:00.000-04:002008-08-19T12:06:00.000-04:00Kudos for doing the job of any good journalist, wo...Kudos for doing the job of any good journalist, working hard to make sure that the truth is known.The Red Sonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13208734710414007893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-63392797522462208482008-08-18T18:57:00.000-04:002008-08-18T18:57:00.000-04:00He must have gotten the wrong one then. I'll find...He must have gotten the wrong one then. I'll find the rest of them and some of the video clips showing dumb bombs being dropped after I finish a few more things around here.Sean O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-85591475445279498492008-08-18T18:32:00.000-04:002008-08-18T18:32:00.000-04:00"Here's one of the Su-24's bombs that..."Here's one of the Su-24's bombs that has been the subject of some aircrew scribing"<BR/><BR/>Sean - that pic is from spring 2006. Image taken during 67th FBAR Siverskiy training at the Ashuluk range. <BR/><BR/>Original picture posted in early 2007. Link:<BR/> http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4493&d=1171437448<BR/><BR/>Other similar pics from the same occasion:<BR/><BR/>http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4499&d=1171437944<BR/><BR/>http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4501&d=1171438095<BR/><BR/>http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4502&d=1171438168<BR/><BR/>http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4258&d=1170000938<BR/><BR/>http://forums.airforce.ru/attachment.php?attachmentid=4259&d=1170000856<BR/><BR/><BR/>Regards DimaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-59673743701645454062008-08-18T18:14:00.000-04:002008-08-18T18:14:00.000-04:00This is a pretty interesting perspective to the wh...This is a pretty interesting perspective to the whole mess:<BR/><BR/>http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-572686,00.htmlSean O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-21019630165904606352008-08-18T18:07:00.000-04:002008-08-18T18:07:00.000-04:00Here's one of the Su-24's bombs that has b...Here's one of the Su-24's bombs that has been the subject of some aircrew scribing:<BR/><BR/>http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1284356&postcount=104Sean O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12262754627111404755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-165290376032593437.post-71263172911519575112008-08-18T17:29:00.000-04:002008-08-18T17:29:00.000-04:00http://defgri.blogspot.com/ Defence, Geopolitics a...http://defgri.blogspot.com/ Defence, Geopolitics and International RelationsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com