INTRODUCTION
Iran. Afghanistan. Iraq. North Korea. All are well-known actual or potential conflict zones. However, there is potentially a new conflict brewing behind the scenes, one that has been kept out of the public eye. Evidence suggests that China has entered an arms race for the potential control of space, and their weapon is the anti-satellite laser.
LASER WEAPONS RESEARCH
China's interest in laser weapon systems originated in the 1960s. Laser weapons research was ordered as part of Project 640, China's early ABM development program. The laser sub-program, designated Project 640-3, was overseen by the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics (SIOFM). Project 640-3 was intended to produce a high-power laser designed to intercept ballistic missiles and, according to some sources, high-altitude aircraft. While Project 640 was cancelled around 1980, a decision to continue laser weapons development had been made in 1979, eventually becoming part of the 863 Program regarding the development of high technology in China.
During the 1980s, China began serious research into high-energy lasers (HELs). The most significant developments were those relating to free-electron lasers (FELs) and chemical oxygen-iodine lasers (COILs), as they would possess the specifications required for an ASAT system. Research into various other less powerful laser systems was also conducted, but they are not believed to possess the required capabilities to effectively engage exoatmospheric objects.
FEL research began in earnest in 1985 at the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP). China's first FEL, named Shuguang-1 (SG-1), was activated in 1993. It was designed by CAEP's Southwest Institute of Fluid Physics. The University of Science and Technology in China (USTC), which had been operating a linear accelerator since 1987, began FEL research no later than 2003, and likely much earlier. COIL research began at the Dalian Institute of Chemistry and Physics (DICP) in the 1980s. In 1993 a COIL was tested by DICP against a target 140 meters distant.
SIOFM and the Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics (AIOFM) have been involved in researching adaptive optics and deformable mirrors. SIOFM began serious work in the 1980s, and it was reported that China had made progress in this field in the 1990s. China has fielded numerous laser range-finding systems for satellite tracking, possibly as an offshoot of this work. One of these systems can be seen in the image below:
Laser weapons research may have benefitted China's ballistic missile program. China has researched the concept of rolling ballistic missiles in-flight to prevent a ground-based laser from concentrating its power on a single spot on the airframe, potentially preventing its destruction. It is possible that a prototype HEL would have been used during a trials program to provide accurate test results, validating or invalidating the research done to that point on both the laser weapon and the BMD countermeasures concept.
THREE SITES
Open source reporting from 2009 suggests that China has deployed an ASAT laser system in Xinjiang province, in or near the Tian Shan mountain range. Examination of the region has provided the probable location of such a site. Furthermore, examination of the site in the context of its similarity to other sites at known HEL-affiliated locations in China lends credibility to the assertion that some form of high-energy laser system is being deployed.
In order to develop an operational ground-based laser ASAT weapon system, China would require both a laser and sufficient deformable optics and target tracking systems. The current hypothesis is that a CAEP-designed FEL has been mated with optics from AOIFM. It is important to note that CAEP is based in Mianyang, with AOIFM based in Hefei. Facilities identified at both of these locations are of a design useful for developmental work regarding exoatmospheric-oriented weapons. And as will be seen, the probable operational facility in Xinjiang province is largely identical to the facilities at Hefei and Mianyang.
Hefei
Identifying the relevant facilities likely to support development and deployment of an operational FEL-based system begins with AIOFM's Hefei facility. AIOFM's Hefei research complex is situated to the west of downtown Hefei, across the shores of Lake Dongpu on what is referred to by the institute as "science island".
AIOFM's suspect facility contains a very unique structure clearly designed to support some sort of upward-viewing system. A large rectangular building with a sliding roof over half of its width represents the likely testing center for AIOFM's optics and mirrors. AIOFM may also be researching lasers of varying power. The USTC may share a facility containing a 200MeV RF linear accelerator with AIOFM's parent organization, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 2003 USTC's Hefei facility received a grant to continue researching various FEL applications related to the linear accelerator. This facility has been described in scientific journals, and interestingly, a map of the facility matches up with a facility adjacent to the AIOFM sliding roof building, albeit if the map were mirror imaged. Regardless, given AIOFM's research areas, the only area which would require a facility resembling the rectangular building would be optics, specifically those designed for upward viewing.
AIOFM's Hefei facility can be seen in the image below:
Mianyang
CAEP's Mianyang facility is home to a great deal of research and development programs. Apart from the FEL work, CAEP is heavily involved in nuclear weapons design. CAEP's Mianyang facilities may have developed China's first FEL, but the potential ASAT facility is much newer. The facility appears to have been built between 2002 and 2004, perhaps providing a general timeline for development of the prototype FEL-based ASAT. The facility is also remarkably similar to the AIOFM facility in Hefei.
Both the AOIFM and CAEP complexes share a large rectangular building fitted with a sliding roof. Once again, this suggests that the purpose of the facility is to house an object or objects designed to view skyward or spaceward through the roof. The construction timeline also hints at the possible development program for a trial FEL-based ASAT. Hefei's facility was present in a completed state in 2004, while CAEP's facility was under construction. Any developmental or test FEL-based system would likely be trialled by AIOFM to fine-tune the optics before being weaponized by CAEP. This suggests that the FEL-based system in question was likely under development around the year 2000, before beginning checkout and trials work at CAEP around 2004.
The probable laser research facility at Mianyang can be seen in the image below. The area outlined in red was built between 2004 and 2008.
Xinjiang
Having identified the likely facilities where development and test work of a FEL-based laser system took place, identifications made more credible given the facilities' association with known laser and optics research organizations, the 2009 report of an operational facility in Xinjiang province becomes far more interesting.
Sited near the aforementioned Tian Shan mountain range is a complex remarkably similar to both the Hefei and Mianyang facilities. This facility, however, is definitely military. Camoflaged buildings and robust security measures mark it as a military facility, but its contents make it the likely location where a developmental or operational FEL-based ASAT has been deployed. The Xinjiang facility, imaged under construction in 2005, contains two large sliding-roof hangars, with a third being built. One hangar likely supports the AIOFM tracking system, with the other supporting the CAEP-designed FEL. The third hangar may support backup systems, another system entirely, or may be half of a yet-to-be-seen pair of hangars mirroring the completed two in design and purpose.
The Xinjiang facility can be seen in the image below:
A graphic shown below illustrates the three facilities side-by-side and to scale. Note that the large buildings are of similar dimensions and all share the same sliding roof assembly, suggesting that they may be part of the same development effort spread across AIOFM and CAEP, the likely contributors to a FEL-based ASAT.
CORROBORATION?
Simple research, even when matched with likely facilities, is not wholly sufficient to suggest that China is actively weaponizing laser systems for the ASAT role. However, events in 2006 may provide the required evidence to tie the whole argument together.
In August and September of 2006, the US government acknowledged that Chinese laser systems had been aimed at US satellites as they passed over Chinese territory. Some analysts have suggested that these events constituted low-power demonstrations of China's ASAT weapon systems, while others have suggested that they were merely laser rangefinders used to plot precise satellite orbits. Given that the satellites which were interfered with were imaging satellites, either possibility has merit. On one hand, a low-power demonstration of an ASAT would provide notice of the capability without conducting an overt or destructive test. On the other hand, accurate plots of imaging satellite orbits would aid in denial and deception efforts. Accurate position data would also provide an ASAT network with targeting information. Either answer, therefore, lends credibility to the ASAT development argument.
The likely answer, however, is a combination of the two. As illustrated previously, China does operate various laser systems used for satellite tracking. It is possible, therefore, that a satellite with a previously measured trajectory was illuminated by a targeting or tracking laser from the Xinjiang facility. This would serve to both fine-tune the optics and tracking systems at the new facility, while sending a tacit message that the system is in place and a threat to be considered in the future.
This is, of course, speculation, as while the 2006 event has been officially acknowledged, the location of the illumination source has not, as that would be a potential indication of the trajectory of a classified overhead reconnaissance asset. However, given that the Hefei facility was operational before the CAEP facility, the optical and/or laser tracking system for the FEL may have been available prior to the actual weapon itself, allowing for it to be emplaced at Xinjiang prior to the remaining system components.
As further evidence to support the assertions made here, the DoD's 2009 edition of Military Power of the People's Republic of China mentions that China is actively pursuing laser ASAT programs.
POTENTIAL CAPABILITIES
The term "FEL-based ASAT" conjures up images of Star Trek-style ray guns obliterating satellites with precision. It should be noted that the term laser-based ASAT system is not being used to suggest a very high-power system whose only goal is to destroy an orbiting satellite. A laser-based ASAT could be employed to do one of three things: dazzle, blind, or destroy a satellite. Destruction is the most complex as it requires significant amounts of power output, high accuracy, and highly precise deformable optics to minimize loss due to atmospheric effects, all three being very significant given that a typical satellite is only viewable from a location on the ground for around 100 seconds.
Dazzling a satellite is commonly mentioned as a tactic to employ against imaging satellites. The beam is directed to the satellite's sensor apparatus, pushing out enough power to temporarily confuse the sensor systems. This is a credible threat to an optical sensor systems. Blinding a satellite is similar to damaging. In this case, the intent is normally to focus energy on a particular sensor in order to damage it to the point where part or all of it is no loger viable, a permanent effect whereas dazzling is only temporary. Finally, destruction involves a high-powered system able to physically destroy any component of the satellite, useful against non-optical systems but requiring comparatively more power than optical counters.
A fully developed and miniaturized FEL could be employed in numerous capacities. Not only could it be employed as a high-powered system at fixed sites, but as lower-power dazzling systems mounted on mobile units and dispersed around the nation. A system able to be emplaced within a satellite laser ranging station would be an interesting weapon as well. Laser ranging systems use pulsed rather than continuous beams to ensure that they are not adversely affecting their targets. A FEL with such a "firing mode" would make a credible dual-use system that could conceivably be deployed at existing ranging sites with little or no knowledge until it was required to switch over to a war footing.
CONCLUSION
In this case, open source imagery and source material seems to corroborate the 2009 report that China has fielded some sort of laser system in Xinjiang province. Whether it possesses the power output to destroy a satellite is not known, but the admittedly circumstantial evidence does seem to indicate that a system may be in place, that it would likely be a product of AIOFM and CAEP, and that it is likely a FEL. With the operationally tested direct-ascent ASAT being tested, however, another form of satellite destruction is not necessarily a must-have capability. As such, the Xinjiang facility may yet be found to serve another wholly unrelated purpose. May we live in interesting times, indeed.
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION
Feel free to discuss the content of this article at the IMINT & Analysis Forum in the discussion thread found here.
SOURCES
-Satellite imagery provided courtesy of Google Earth
Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics
China and Iran: ancient partners in a post-imperial world
Chinese Lasers and U.S. Satellites
Project 640
Assessing China's ASAT Program
Sichuan Quake & Nuclear Weapons
The following documents were used as references and can be downloaded as a .zip file here. The file is almost 40MB, be warned!
The Great Game in Space: China’s Evolving ASAT Weapons Programs and Their Implications for Future U.S. Strategy
China's ASAT capabilities as a potential response to US missile defense and "space control" plans
Current FEL Developments in China
The High Accuracy RF Phase Detector Research For 200 MEV LINAC
An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs, Policies, and Doctrines
Chinese Perspectives on Space Weapons
The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States
Military Power of the People's Republic of China - 2009
Operational Implications of Laser Weapons
The following documents and publications were used as references and are not included in the downloadable file above:
Design and Experiment of SG-1 FEL, Hui Zhongxi, Institute of Engineering Electronics, IEEE, 1993
Free Electron Laser Research In China, Jialin Xie, Chinese Academy of Sciences, IEEE, 1996
The Laser BMD and Other Radiant Energy Weapons: Some Thoughts, Paul J. Nahin, IEEE, 1977
Iran. Afghanistan. Iraq. North Korea. All are well-known actual or potential conflict zones. However, there is potentially a new conflict brewing behind the scenes, one that has been kept out of the public eye. Evidence suggests that China has entered an arms race for the potential control of space, and their weapon is the anti-satellite laser.
LASER WEAPONS RESEARCH
China's interest in laser weapon systems originated in the 1960s. Laser weapons research was ordered as part of Project 640, China's early ABM development program. The laser sub-program, designated Project 640-3, was overseen by the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics (SIOFM). Project 640-3 was intended to produce a high-power laser designed to intercept ballistic missiles and, according to some sources, high-altitude aircraft. While Project 640 was cancelled around 1980, a decision to continue laser weapons development had been made in 1979, eventually becoming part of the 863 Program regarding the development of high technology in China.
During the 1980s, China began serious research into high-energy lasers (HELs). The most significant developments were those relating to free-electron lasers (FELs) and chemical oxygen-iodine lasers (COILs), as they would possess the specifications required for an ASAT system. Research into various other less powerful laser systems was also conducted, but they are not believed to possess the required capabilities to effectively engage exoatmospheric objects.
FEL research began in earnest in 1985 at the Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP). China's first FEL, named Shuguang-1 (SG-1), was activated in 1993. It was designed by CAEP's Southwest Institute of Fluid Physics. The University of Science and Technology in China (USTC), which had been operating a linear accelerator since 1987, began FEL research no later than 2003, and likely much earlier. COIL research began at the Dalian Institute of Chemistry and Physics (DICP) in the 1980s. In 1993 a COIL was tested by DICP against a target 140 meters distant.
SIOFM and the Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics (AIOFM) have been involved in researching adaptive optics and deformable mirrors. SIOFM began serious work in the 1980s, and it was reported that China had made progress in this field in the 1990s. China has fielded numerous laser range-finding systems for satellite tracking, possibly as an offshoot of this work. One of these systems can be seen in the image below:
Laser weapons research may have benefitted China's ballistic missile program. China has researched the concept of rolling ballistic missiles in-flight to prevent a ground-based laser from concentrating its power on a single spot on the airframe, potentially preventing its destruction. It is possible that a prototype HEL would have been used during a trials program to provide accurate test results, validating or invalidating the research done to that point on both the laser weapon and the BMD countermeasures concept.THREE SITES
Open source reporting from 2009 suggests that China has deployed an ASAT laser system in Xinjiang province, in or near the Tian Shan mountain range. Examination of the region has provided the probable location of such a site. Furthermore, examination of the site in the context of its similarity to other sites at known HEL-affiliated locations in China lends credibility to the assertion that some form of high-energy laser system is being deployed.
In order to develop an operational ground-based laser ASAT weapon system, China would require both a laser and sufficient deformable optics and target tracking systems. The current hypothesis is that a CAEP-designed FEL has been mated with optics from AOIFM. It is important to note that CAEP is based in Mianyang, with AOIFM based in Hefei. Facilities identified at both of these locations are of a design useful for developmental work regarding exoatmospheric-oriented weapons. And as will be seen, the probable operational facility in Xinjiang province is largely identical to the facilities at Hefei and Mianyang.
Hefei
Identifying the relevant facilities likely to support development and deployment of an operational FEL-based system begins with AIOFM's Hefei facility. AIOFM's Hefei research complex is situated to the west of downtown Hefei, across the shores of Lake Dongpu on what is referred to by the institute as "science island".
AIOFM's suspect facility contains a very unique structure clearly designed to support some sort of upward-viewing system. A large rectangular building with a sliding roof over half of its width represents the likely testing center for AIOFM's optics and mirrors. AIOFM may also be researching lasers of varying power. The USTC may share a facility containing a 200MeV RF linear accelerator with AIOFM's parent organization, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 2003 USTC's Hefei facility received a grant to continue researching various FEL applications related to the linear accelerator. This facility has been described in scientific journals, and interestingly, a map of the facility matches up with a facility adjacent to the AIOFM sliding roof building, albeit if the map were mirror imaged. Regardless, given AIOFM's research areas, the only area which would require a facility resembling the rectangular building would be optics, specifically those designed for upward viewing.
AIOFM's Hefei facility can be seen in the image below:
MianyangCAEP's Mianyang facility is home to a great deal of research and development programs. Apart from the FEL work, CAEP is heavily involved in nuclear weapons design. CAEP's Mianyang facilities may have developed China's first FEL, but the potential ASAT facility is much newer. The facility appears to have been built between 2002 and 2004, perhaps providing a general timeline for development of the prototype FEL-based ASAT. The facility is also remarkably similar to the AIOFM facility in Hefei.
Both the AOIFM and CAEP complexes share a large rectangular building fitted with a sliding roof. Once again, this suggests that the purpose of the facility is to house an object or objects designed to view skyward or spaceward through the roof. The construction timeline also hints at the possible development program for a trial FEL-based ASAT. Hefei's facility was present in a completed state in 2004, while CAEP's facility was under construction. Any developmental or test FEL-based system would likely be trialled by AIOFM to fine-tune the optics before being weaponized by CAEP. This suggests that the FEL-based system in question was likely under development around the year 2000, before beginning checkout and trials work at CAEP around 2004.
The probable laser research facility at Mianyang can be seen in the image below. The area outlined in red was built between 2004 and 2008.
XinjiangHaving identified the likely facilities where development and test work of a FEL-based laser system took place, identifications made more credible given the facilities' association with known laser and optics research organizations, the 2009 report of an operational facility in Xinjiang province becomes far more interesting.
Sited near the aforementioned Tian Shan mountain range is a complex remarkably similar to both the Hefei and Mianyang facilities. This facility, however, is definitely military. Camoflaged buildings and robust security measures mark it as a military facility, but its contents make it the likely location where a developmental or operational FEL-based ASAT has been deployed. The Xinjiang facility, imaged under construction in 2005, contains two large sliding-roof hangars, with a third being built. One hangar likely supports the AIOFM tracking system, with the other supporting the CAEP-designed FEL. The third hangar may support backup systems, another system entirely, or may be half of a yet-to-be-seen pair of hangars mirroring the completed two in design and purpose.
The Xinjiang facility can be seen in the image below:
A graphic shown below illustrates the three facilities side-by-side and to scale. Note that the large buildings are of similar dimensions and all share the same sliding roof assembly, suggesting that they may be part of the same development effort spread across AIOFM and CAEP, the likely contributors to a FEL-based ASAT.
CORROBORATION?Simple research, even when matched with likely facilities, is not wholly sufficient to suggest that China is actively weaponizing laser systems for the ASAT role. However, events in 2006 may provide the required evidence to tie the whole argument together.
In August and September of 2006, the US government acknowledged that Chinese laser systems had been aimed at US satellites as they passed over Chinese territory. Some analysts have suggested that these events constituted low-power demonstrations of China's ASAT weapon systems, while others have suggested that they were merely laser rangefinders used to plot precise satellite orbits. Given that the satellites which were interfered with were imaging satellites, either possibility has merit. On one hand, a low-power demonstration of an ASAT would provide notice of the capability without conducting an overt or destructive test. On the other hand, accurate plots of imaging satellite orbits would aid in denial and deception efforts. Accurate position data would also provide an ASAT network with targeting information. Either answer, therefore, lends credibility to the ASAT development argument.
The likely answer, however, is a combination of the two. As illustrated previously, China does operate various laser systems used for satellite tracking. It is possible, therefore, that a satellite with a previously measured trajectory was illuminated by a targeting or tracking laser from the Xinjiang facility. This would serve to both fine-tune the optics and tracking systems at the new facility, while sending a tacit message that the system is in place and a threat to be considered in the future.
This is, of course, speculation, as while the 2006 event has been officially acknowledged, the location of the illumination source has not, as that would be a potential indication of the trajectory of a classified overhead reconnaissance asset. However, given that the Hefei facility was operational before the CAEP facility, the optical and/or laser tracking system for the FEL may have been available prior to the actual weapon itself, allowing for it to be emplaced at Xinjiang prior to the remaining system components.
As further evidence to support the assertions made here, the DoD's 2009 edition of Military Power of the People's Republic of China mentions that China is actively pursuing laser ASAT programs.
POTENTIAL CAPABILITIES
The term "FEL-based ASAT" conjures up images of Star Trek-style ray guns obliterating satellites with precision. It should be noted that the term laser-based ASAT system is not being used to suggest a very high-power system whose only goal is to destroy an orbiting satellite. A laser-based ASAT could be employed to do one of three things: dazzle, blind, or destroy a satellite. Destruction is the most complex as it requires significant amounts of power output, high accuracy, and highly precise deformable optics to minimize loss due to atmospheric effects, all three being very significant given that a typical satellite is only viewable from a location on the ground for around 100 seconds.
Dazzling a satellite is commonly mentioned as a tactic to employ against imaging satellites. The beam is directed to the satellite's sensor apparatus, pushing out enough power to temporarily confuse the sensor systems. This is a credible threat to an optical sensor systems. Blinding a satellite is similar to damaging. In this case, the intent is normally to focus energy on a particular sensor in order to damage it to the point where part or all of it is no loger viable, a permanent effect whereas dazzling is only temporary. Finally, destruction involves a high-powered system able to physically destroy any component of the satellite, useful against non-optical systems but requiring comparatively more power than optical counters.
A fully developed and miniaturized FEL could be employed in numerous capacities. Not only could it be employed as a high-powered system at fixed sites, but as lower-power dazzling systems mounted on mobile units and dispersed around the nation. A system able to be emplaced within a satellite laser ranging station would be an interesting weapon as well. Laser ranging systems use pulsed rather than continuous beams to ensure that they are not adversely affecting their targets. A FEL with such a "firing mode" would make a credible dual-use system that could conceivably be deployed at existing ranging sites with little or no knowledge until it was required to switch over to a war footing.
CONCLUSION
In this case, open source imagery and source material seems to corroborate the 2009 report that China has fielded some sort of laser system in Xinjiang province. Whether it possesses the power output to destroy a satellite is not known, but the admittedly circumstantial evidence does seem to indicate that a system may be in place, that it would likely be a product of AIOFM and CAEP, and that it is likely a FEL. With the operationally tested direct-ascent ASAT being tested, however, another form of satellite destruction is not necessarily a must-have capability. As such, the Xinjiang facility may yet be found to serve another wholly unrelated purpose. May we live in interesting times, indeed.
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION
Feel free to discuss the content of this article at the IMINT & Analysis Forum in the discussion thread found here.
SOURCES
-Satellite imagery provided courtesy of Google Earth
Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics
China and Iran: ancient partners in a post-imperial world
Chinese Lasers and U.S. Satellites
Project 640
Assessing China's ASAT Program
Sichuan Quake & Nuclear Weapons
The following documents were used as references and can be downloaded as a .zip file here. The file is almost 40MB, be warned!
The Great Game in Space: China’s Evolving ASAT Weapons Programs and Their Implications for Future U.S. Strategy
China's ASAT capabilities as a potential response to US missile defense and "space control" plans
Current FEL Developments in China
The High Accuracy RF Phase Detector Research For 200 MEV LINAC
An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs, Policies, and Doctrines
Chinese Perspectives on Space Weapons
The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States
Military Power of the People's Republic of China - 2009
Operational Implications of Laser Weapons
The following documents and publications were used as references and are not included in the downloadable file above:
Design and Experiment of SG-1 FEL, Hui Zhongxi, Institute of Engineering Electronics, IEEE, 1993
Free Electron Laser Research In China, Jialin Xie, Chinese Academy of Sciences, IEEE, 1996
The Laser BMD and Other Radiant Energy Weapons: Some Thoughts, Paul J. Nahin, IEEE, 1977
4 comments:
Sean, interesting article as always. We are looking at these issues in great detail as well.
An off topic question: Who and why did the OSINT community declare the designator for the HQ-9 TER to be the HT-233? It is consistent across the web, including APA, Trishulgroup, sinodefense.
The designator HT-233 was picked up from one of the Chinese military displays somewhere, possibly Zhuhai. There was another designator believed to be associated with it, but it popped up in a Chinese ad for the KS-1A as the new phased array for that system. That one was SJ-something if I remember right.
SJ-231. There's a page on the BIRM site (casic23.com.cn). Looks like they just cut off the processing cabin, but the array looks like the "old" HT-233 photos. Radome and IFF on top of the newer photos looks less like Patriot and more like TOMB STONE.
Very interesting, well documented and through article, i'm impressed!
I was wondering if you have any hints or evidence of Beamed Energy Propulsion activity which we feel (being involved heavily in the field) is a much bigger threat in terms of strategic capabilities.
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